Lowe tries to lead Braves to series win in D.C.

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves shoot for a series win this afternoon when they play the rubber match of their three-game series with the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.

A 3-0 loser in Tuesday's opener, Atlanta bounced back to even the set on Wednesday night when Chipper Jones drove in two runs and Tim Hudson was solid in 7 2/3 innings on the mound in a 3-1 triumph.

Hudson (11-5) gave up one run on seven hits to improve to 10-1 lifetime against the Nationals. He has won nine straight decisions against them since his lone loss on June 5, 2006. The right-hander also struck out seven and walked one.

Martin Prado went 3-for-5 with two runs scored for the Braves.

Mike Morse knocked in the lone run for Washington, which has lost four of five. Livan Hernandez (7-7) lasted just 4 1/3 frames in the start, allowing three runs on six hits.

The Braves hold a 3 1/2-game edge over Philadelphia in the National League's East Division, a bulge that's been trimmed significantly as of late with the Phillies' seven-game win streak.

Atlanta sends 37-year-old Derek Lowe to the mound for the starting assignment, as he tries to add on to what became his ninth career double-digit win season when he beat Milwaukee on July 18.

Lowe, who is 6-5 lifetime against the Nationals picked up one of the losses on June 29 in Atlanta when he dropped a 7-2 decision after allowing eight hits and four runs in 5 2/3 innings.

The defeat started a three-game skid that ended when Lowe allowed eight hits and three runs in 5 1/3 innings while beating the Brewers. That win was No. 10 on the season and continued a streak that began when he won 21 games for the Boston Red Sox in 2002.

For the Nationals, lefty Scott Olsen returns to the majors for his first start since May 21.

The 26-year-old Michigan native fell to 2-2 on the season with a 5-3 loss to Baltimore that night, then subsequently went on the 15-day disabled list with left shoulder tightness.

He made four rehabilitation starts in the minor leagues to prepare for his return and posted a 3.21 ERA.

Olsen is 3-5 in 14 lifetime appearances against the Braves, including a no- decision on May 6 in which he allowed two hits and one earned run in 7 1/3 innings of Washington's 3-2 win.

These teams have split eight overall meetings this year, with the Nationals winning three of the four matchups held in Washington.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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