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07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The British Open returned to the Old Course at St. Andrews this week for the 28th time. No course has hosted more Open Championships.
In keeping with the vintage of the historic venue, the story of the last two British Opens was a 50-something making a memorable run at the title. In 2008, 53-year-old Greg Norman was the third-round leader and clung to the lead on the 10th tee of the final round before falling apart on the back nine.
Last year, 59-year-old Tom Watson birdied the 71st hole to take the lead. He was looking to become the oldest major champion ever, and he would have tied the record for most wins at the British Open.
Watson bogeyed the 72nd hole, then lost to Stewart Cink in the playoff.
Whose turn is it this year? There are six names that come to mind, though only one of them has won the Open Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews.
The six that could make a run this week are Mark Calcavecchia, Nick Faldo, Sandy Lyle, Tom Lehman, Mark O'Meara and Loren Roberts. The first five are former Open champions, while Roberts is the reigning Senior British Open champ.
Here's a breakdown of the six, and we'll tell you at the end which member of the group we think has the best chance to position himself for a title this week.
- Calcavecchia won the '89 British at Royal Troon. Prior to turning 50 in June, he missed two of his last four cuts on the PGA Tour. Since joining the Champions Tour, he has shared sixth and 16th in his two starts. Look for him to make plenty of noise on the Champions Tour, but not much this week.
- Faldo won the Open at St. Andrews in 1990, but has played just once all season. At the BMW International three weeks ago, Faldo missed the cut by nine strokes in his first start since the '09 Senior British Open. It is unlikely you'll be there down the stretch, so enjoy your birthday on Sunday, Sir Nick.
- Lyle, who won the '85 British at Royal St. George's, has been a non-factor in his last three starts on the Champions Tour. The two-time major champion missed the cut at the Senior PGA Championship, but has a pair of top-12 finishes in his last two European Senior Tour events. That's all well and good, but Lyle not's the choice here.
- At Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 1996, Lehman claimed his lone major championship. He won the Senior PGA back in May and shared 41st at the Memorial before missing the cut at the U.S. Open. He would be a good choice, for next weekend's Senior British Open.
- That leaves us with Roberts and O'Meara. Roberts would be a great choice since he has gone third-first-fifth in his last three Champions Tour starts. However, the choice here is O'Meara.
The 53-year-old teamed with Nick Price to win the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on the Champions Tour in April. That came after a runner-up finish in the rain-shortened Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am.
In his last three starts, his only top-20 was a fourth-place finish at the Senior PGA Championship. O'Meara, who won the '98 Open Championship at Birkdale, has only broken par in six of his last 10 years.
I didn't say I was picking the hottest player among the group, just the one I think has the best chance at making an unlikely run at winning the season's third major.
Keep an eye on O'Meara.
THE UNWANTED TITLE DEFENSE
Most, if not all golfers, will tell you explicitly that one of their top goals is to win a major championship. Only a select few are able to accomplish that feat.
John Rollins will not be among those players this week, though he will be attempting to defend a title at a PGA-sanctioned tournament, the Reno-Tahoe Open.
The British Open is technically a European Tour event, and for those who were unable to qualify to play at St. Andrews, the PGA Tour offers Reno-Tahoe Open. Winning the Reno-Tahoe Open counts as official victory on the PGA Tour, but does not automatically qualify a player for the four major championships.
Rollins, therefore, has the somewhat thankless task of defending his title this week in Reno. His victory last year came when the event was played opposite the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational.
Rollins, ranked 116th in the world, is the fourth-highest player in the field in Reno. Chad Campbell is the highest-ranked, at No. 93.
With 85 of top 100 in the world playing at the British, Rollins has to contend with only two players that have won on the PGA Tour this year and two former major champions in his quest to repeat as the Reno-Tahoe champion.
If Rollins does repeat, he would join Vaughn Taylor as the only two players that have repeated in Tahoe.
MINI-TIDBITS
- Tiger Woods is using a new ball and a new putter this week at the British Open. Will either matter? Probably not, but I still think he finishes in the top-five, at worst.
- Meg Mallon announced her retirement from competitive golf last week. The 17- time winner's move is a big loss for the LPGA Tour, even though she has missed the cut in all seven starts this year.
- Lonnie Nielsen will be out of action for the remainder of the Champions Tour schedule as he is set to undergo knee surgery on July 21. Nielsen said his right knee has troubled him since he was in college, when he injured it playing basketball.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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